Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Scherzer: A Lot to Like (With One Hesitation at $210M)

                    By ROSS NEWHAN

                    Well, okay, I get it.

                    I get why Ted Lerner, at 89, would give the go-ahead on a seven-year, $210 million contract for the 30 year old Max Scherzer.

                    There are only so many opportunities, after all, to see your Washington Nationals go the distance (which they probably should have done last year), and now, with Scherzer, your already formidable rotation is the best in baseball (although a trade could still be forthcoming) and your lineup is one of the best.

                    I also get (to an extent) how the contract isn't entirely what it seems and works for both the team and Scherzer (simplified: it's $15 million a year spread over 14 years, working in the deferments).

                   Where I stop getting it, and I acknowledge that my little yardstick won't matter to anyone concerned only with the State of the Nationals, is how the $210 is only $5 million less than Clayton Kershaw's seven year contract with the Dodgers considering they are not in the same category. Kershaw, at 26, is fashioning a career of historic measure. Scherzer is not, which is not to demean his accomplishments.

                   He was the best pitcher still on the market, and the market, in a $9 billion industry, is a market of which I became numb to long ago.

                   And while I just don't see Scherzer within $5 million of Kershaw, I get what he brings to the Nationals, which includes a long list of analytic positives, a 70-24 record over the last four years, 492 strike outs in his last 434 2/3 innings, and 18 wins and 220 innings a year after winning the 2013 Cy Young Award.

                Will he be the same pitcher at 37 he is at 30? The Nationals, viewing a pitcher seemingly getting stronger, have little reason to look beyond the next three or four years.

                 With Scherzer added to a fearsome fivesome of Jordan Zimmerman, Stephen Strasburg, Doug Fister, Gio Gonzalez and Tanner Roark, they now have several options.

                   They can recoup some of the $210 by trading a starter, possibly Zimmerman, who is eligible for free agency at the end of the year and has said he will not give the Nationals a home discount, or Strasburg, who would probably net a bigger return. Strasburg is represented by the noted Scott Boras, who also represents Scherzer and is unlikely to have placed the latter in a situation that would result in another client being uprooted except that Strasburg, who lives in San Diego and attends many athletic events at San Diego State, where he became a first round draft choice, would probably love to leave for the Padres, hungry for a starter with relievers and prospects to offer.

                   If there is no trade, the impressive young Roark, now the sixth man out, could move to a setup role, replacing the recently traded and expensive Tyler Clippard, and if there is no trade and Zimmerman and Fister, who will also be eligible for free agency, leave next fall, Scherzer, Strasburg, Gonzalez, Roark and a host of young pitchers on the farm provide a solid foundation for the future.

                  I get it: Lerner and the Nats built on a strength, and while I don't see Scherzer in Kershaw's neighborhood, no one understands the price of the game better than Boras, and in this case he found a team willing to pay it to the Max.


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